3 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1426
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kesik
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1411
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Kesik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.