3 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1457
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1452
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.