3 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1530
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kurek
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1520
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.