3 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1520
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Durda
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1496
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Durda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.