3 Jul · 19:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1557
FormLLLWW
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Strowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Strowski
ELO 1769
FormWLWWL
28%
72%
Fair odds · Strowski
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+212
H2H21-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+212)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-7)