3 Jul · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Aleksander Szydlo
ELO 1467
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1496
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.