3 Jul · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1323
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1350
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.