3 Jul · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1399
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Fira
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1326
FormLLWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H8-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-6)