3 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1441
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fabis
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1424
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H44-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.