3 Jul · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1331
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Adach
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1332
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Adach
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.