4 Jul · 01:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1395
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fira
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1348
FormWWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H8-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-7)