4 Jul · 04:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1409
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fira
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1342
FormWLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)