4 Jul · 06:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1379
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Trela
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1337
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H9-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-8)