4 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1348
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1355
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.