4 Jul · 11:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇵🇱Sebastian Baran
ELO 1552
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Baran
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1485
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Baran
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)