4 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FM
🇵🇱Filip Mlynarski
ELO 1588
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mlynarski
TF
🇵🇱Tomasz Filbrandt
ELO 1576
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mlynarski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.