4 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1584
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Witczak
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1549
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.