4 Jul · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1354
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Staniszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1363
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.