4 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1549
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lach
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1549
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lach
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 32% · 3.11· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+0
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.