4 Jul · 15:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇵🇱Sebastian Baran
ELO 1548
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Baran
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1493
FormLWLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Baran
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)