4 Jul · 23:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1386
FormLWWWW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1521
FormWWLLW
35%
65%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 72% · 1.40· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~75 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+135
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+135)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)