4 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1521
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Warzecha
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1557
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.