4 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1550
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Morawiec
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1549
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 35% · 2.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.