4 Jul · 19:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1567
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jadach
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1559
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 33% · 3.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.