4 Jul · 21:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1389
FormWLLLW
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1597
FormWWLLL
29%
71%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~80 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+208
H2H10-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+208)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-0)