5 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1449
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stapor
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1445
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.