5 Jul · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1559
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1572
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.