5 Jul · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LP
🇵🇱Lukasz Pietraszko
ELO 1571
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kapik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1643
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)