5 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1556
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zelezik
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1549
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.