5 Jul · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1522
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Durda
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1543
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Durda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.