6 Jul · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KN
🇵🇱Krzysztof Niemiec
ELO 1519
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Niemiec
MW
🇵🇱Mateusz Woskowicz
ELO 1489
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.