6 Jul · 05:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1610
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1627
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H78-82
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.