6 Jul · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AG
🇵🇱Artur Gromek
ELO 1511
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wisniewski
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1585
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)