6 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1390
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Piecowski
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1343
FormWWLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H18-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-14)