6 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1476
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1480
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H37-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.