7 Jul · 04:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Michalik
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1394
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.