7 Jul · 01:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pyrek
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1504
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Pyrek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H28-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-15)