7 Jul · 02:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Michalik
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1406
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H20-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.