7 Jul · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1406
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chojnacki
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1394
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Chojnacki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.