6 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1580
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warzecha
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1563
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H30-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.