6 Jul · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1392
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mecik
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1348
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Mecik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H12-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-7)