6 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1407
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1426
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H24-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.