6 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1322
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1331
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H7-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.