6 Jul · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1405
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1407
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.