6 Jul · 20:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1303
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Staniczek
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1350
FormLLWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Staniczek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H20-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-4)