6 Jul · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1403
FormLLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mrugala
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1330
FormLWLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H33-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-24)