6 Jul · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1542
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1618
FormLLWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)