6 Jul · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1486
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1493
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H82-65
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.