6 Jul · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1555
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kostepski
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1480
FormLLLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H32-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-18)