6 Jul · 23:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1436
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fabis
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1409
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H24-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.